What is coming 2025?
Reading time: 13 minutes
In the bike industry, we look back on a wild rollercoaster ride. A bike boom during the pandemic was followed by a sharp decline in sales numbers. Market saturation, excessive and overly ambitious reorders of bikes and components by many manufacturers, and a backlog all the way to retailers have left the industry in shock. Innovation, which would drive sales, is possible in two scenarios: when sufficient resources are available, or when it becomes necessary due to changes in the market.
What could motivate us bikers to invest, in times when the cost of living is skyrocketing, into a new bike again? Below are some insights, and a spoiler upfront: it won’t be the 1-degree flatter head angle that motivates us to pull out the credit card, and I dare say that a new parameter is entering the stage. More on that in the section on riding dynamics.
Let's dive into our thoughts on the topics that will be relevant in the bike industry in 2025 and that we bikers will be focusing on.
Affordable Bikes
The market is saturated. During the pandemic years, almost all of us equipped ourselves with new bikes. By the time the ongoing clearance sales with high discounts, including "buy-one-get-one-free" deals (yes this really happened), were in full swing, anyone could fulfill their desire for a new enduro, trail bike, gravel bike, or e-bike.
While Specialized spearheaded the blowout, with some of the most aggressive price reductions, other major manufacturers jumped on the bandwagon later to move their bikes from the warehouses to retailers and ultimately to customers. While manufacturers realized that production lines should slow down, the pressure from the supply chain continued to push through all the way to the retailer level. So where to put all these bikes and parts? Customers already had a new bike, and why would they buy another one so soon?
The lower the level of innovation, the more cycling becomes a fashion topic.
Decals become just as outdated after a few years as colors, components, and frame shapes. A look alone doesn’t create worse riding behavior, but still, the desire for something fresh grows. That's just how we humans are wired. The same principle applies to the width of pants, the length of T-shirts, or hairstyles.
So, should you invest several thousand euros, even though your aging bike from the basement still works perfectly fine on the trails? You don’t have to. If your wallet allows it – why not?
However, not everyone has that kind of money. Cyclists are a special breed. Some would rather save on the car or (exaggerating) eat nothing but canned ravioli for weeks to treat themselves to the latest bike. Since the upgrade is still quite costly and the innovation has diminished, you might think twice about saving in other areas of life.
This perspective has already been adopted by some manufacturers.
Those who want to continue selling to the core mountain biker group, which is suffering due to the economic situation, need to offer something more affordable. But I’m not talking about a carbon frame, where admittedly, the low-end parts, which are often not much worse, are installed. It doesn't always have to be "Ultimate" or "Kashima." In the mid-range price segment, with solid adjustability, but – and here's the catch – a more affordable frame. Whether it's aluminum or steel. Two materials that have lost some popularity but are likely to find their way back into manufacturers' line-ups.
Frame material & Manufacturing methods
Out of the already mentioned need for lower prices, we will see new materials. But not only that. Even in bikes beyond the 10K mark, we will likely see more metal again, even if only in parts. Additive manufacturing will be a driver for this. Manufacturers gained and still gaining experience with this method in prototyping. Especially in world cup racing. This is coupled with new opportunities for shaping and functionality that simply aren't possible with CNC or carbon. At (Read article here), there were exciting approaches to see, which will very likely also be found in some bike manufacturers' products.
The hype around bonded carbon tubes in CNC or sleeve components made through additive manufacturing is very real, and fans are willing to pay for it. The shine of novelty and uniqueness sticks to these bikes, and by the time of Eurobike, Atherton's production bikes will no longer be a one-off.
Gearbox
After all the excitement surrounding the SRAM transmission and the impressive durability in the upper range of the new derailleurs, reality set in. Even this version of a drivetrain is not entirely indestructible. The never-ending race for more gear range in a 1x system inevitably leads (closer) to the ground. Unfortunately, it's all too common to unintentionally bend the derailleur cage when hitting rocks.
There are several options on the market, and not just since yesterday.
Effigear and Pinion are among the most prominent players. Pinion, in particular, is making the biggest leap forward with its MGU (Motor.Gearbox.Unit), especially when you consider the number of manufacturers already adopting this system..
In 2011, Pinion, then still a small Stuttgart-based startup, introduced its P1.18 gearbox. At Eurobike 2024, it became clear that while some frame manufacturers are willing to trust their mature system with belts and centralized gear changes, many still offer a classic derailleur version as well.
The question remains whether SRAM and Shimano's strong position, with their traditional cassette setups, will be enough to keep the gearbox in check in the long run. However, through the backdoor of e-bikes, gearboxes should gain market share in 2025.
A few days ago, Atherton Bikes teased a bike on their Instagram account, which will likely also use the DW6 system. When zooming in, there’s no visible derailleur. It seems likely that they've taken the next step and are using a gearbox. Yesterday, they released a Reel confirming the first speculations.
If you look closely, the derailleur and cassette are missing. A thin cable runs from the handlebars into the frame.
Dual Chains – Two chains – Hallelujah
High-pivot and now increasingly mid-high-pivot designs are establishing themselves. Rearward axle paths play a significant role in the handling of a bike. Even though, upon closer inspection, one might find that we're talking about relatively small "rearward axle paths." As long as the overall ride is smoother, certain drawbacks can be overlooked. These include a longer chain, noise development, wear on the idler pulley, special chain guides, and limited engagement with the chainring. Dave Weagle rethought this principle and doubled the idler pulley.
While Pivot introduced the system on their downhill bike, we can expect to see some e-bikes this year featuring dual idler pulleys and two chains.
The origins of the dual-chain setup date back to 1997. On the Brooklyn Machine Works Super Trucker, the chainring was moved to the left side of the bottom bracket, from where it went up to a small chainring. It then traveled across to the right side via a shaft, powering the cassette through a second chain.
More parts and weight, but a secure chain retention, and more importantly, the kinematics compete less for space near the bottom bracket. What might seem insignificant at first becomes apparent upon closer inspection. When pivot points and idler levers are placed around the bottom bracket, space can become tight. Chainstay length, tire clearance – everything needs its place, and what works well for one factor comes at the expense of another. By shifting the kinematics upwards, you gain space. Space for freer placement and fewer compromises.
This is even more important in one bike category than in others – e-bikes. Motors and their mounting points are bulky, and while some manufacturers use steeper-mounted motors, two chains solve many of the challenges in construction.
The return of the Dynamo?
Battery in the GPS, battery on the derailleur, battery on the e-bike, a battery in the downtube, and for those who take it to the extreme, additional batteries in the electronic suspension. These electrifying prospects make you hope that everyone has packed all their charging cables and spare batteries for the weekend bike trip. Those using the SRAM transmission have the option of a direct connection with Bosch. This means an adapter with a cable to the drive unit or central power source. The derailleur then receives power directly, without the need for the small AXS battery. Stress-free.
With a regular mountain bike, you're out of luck and have to think about spare batteries and keep an eye on the charge level.
Even though some battery runtimes are pretty long, there are few situations more frustrating than a derailleur that refuses to shift gears in the middle of a ride.
Whirring, buzzing – that could be the sound of the solution. A dynamo on the tire, or directly in the hub. What sounds old-fashioned could be an interesting solution for the low-power demand. A solution for a problem that wouldn’t exist with a cable-actuated derailleur? We don’t need to go into the differences and points of debate between the proponents of each camp here.
Having power on the bike is nothing new. The source has just changed. Will we see the return of dynamos to power derailleurs? It’s possible.
E-Bikes
In addition to the points we've already covered regarding batteries and electronic suspensions, there are developments we’d like to see, or perhaps will see soon.
The weight difference between mid-power motors and full-power motors is becoming smaller. Just under a kilogram, to be precise, when comparing Bosch SX and CX. On an e-bike, this difference is literally less noticeable. The main weight savings (also) come from the battery. While many manufacturers already rely on 750 Wh batteries in the downtube to counter range anxiety, there have also been attempts to limit the power of a standard (Shimano) motor and reduce the overall weight with a smaller battery.
A motor with less power also requires less energy.
Thus, this concept could work. Orbea allowed on their first Rise model to turn off the motor’s power limit on and access the full performance. Of course, this will reduce range, but it offers the advantage of a lighter and more agile bike, which means more fun on the trail. Meanwhile, they have a specific software solution to work with the strong motor and change modes when you add a range extender. Interesting to see nonetheless how manufacturers come up with solutions to balance out weight and power.
From a manufacturer’s perspective, the principle of standardization is also appealing. By avoiding inventory with additional motors, performance can be controlled via software based on the battery size or the overall character of the bike. Modular battery systems in the downtube or attachable powerpacks in the front triangle allow the user to choose between weight, handling, and range.
Batteries
External batteries, internal batteries, removable batteries… the topic of power supply in e-bikes is more complex than just the watt-hours of the energy source. Weight and energy density in the cells are crucial components. One wants to be confident that the battery will last the entire ride in turbo mode, yet still not compromise on riding dynamics or weight. It’s a dilemma because watt-hours add significant weight.
Battery technology is constantly evolving. As early as 2014, researchers at Clarkson University discovered that capacitors could be made on a hemp basis. However, even ten years later, there are no mass-market products in this area yet. But a breakthrough can still be hoped for.
What we can already do today as bike developers is thinking about the positioning of the additional weight of the battery. Lapierre takes this to the extreme under the influence of Nico Vouilloz. The result is the visually polarizing Overvolt GLP III. The battery slides over the motor, making it visible and positioning it much more centrally than when mounted in the downtube.
From a developer's perspective, even more radical approaches are possible based on this principle. The battery cells are placed directly around the motor itself. Hard to imagine? A patent from SRAM visualizes this approach:
Electronic suspension
Specialized recognized early on that suspension setup should be easier. As a solution, they introduced shocks with "Autosag." You pump it up to 300 psi, sit on the bike, press a button, and the shock releases the necessary pressure through a valve to reach the ideal SAG. For various reasons, this concept never became widely adopted.
What does this have to do with an electronic suspension, though?
Fox pursued the idea with LIVE VALVE that sensors could detect riding and what you could call trail conditions and automatically adjust the suspension, either locking or opening it. Efficiency was the goal – no need to reach for the lockout lever on the shock or use a remote on the handlebars. The aim was to always be riding in the ideal setting. The system was introduced about seven years ago but was complicated to install with cables and simply too expensive. Last year, the successor was introduced: Fox LIVE VALVE NEO. The update focuses on the shock and gathers data from two smaller sensors that can be discreetly mounted on the post-mount brake mounts. It's simpler and more user-friendly in application.
Early stage is over. Electronic suspensions open up new tuning possibilities and offer a performance gain.
SRAM relies on a complete ecosystem with Flight Attendant. The fork communicates with the shock, and through a sensor in the bottom bracket, the suspension is optimized for efficiency when pedaling.
Despite their different philosophies, both systems have something in common.
They optimize the behavior of the suspension based on inputs from the terrain or the rider. If we extend the system further, more integration is likely to follow. It's conceivable that it could connect to additional parameters or be analyzed through additional sensors, similar to what’s seen in cars. Keyword: obstacle detection. We might not see this in mass production by 2025, but while bike purists may not be as excited about it, tech-savvy, performance-oriented riders and casual enthusiasts could benefit from such developments. If we continue this thought, we won't be able to avoid the ABS and automatic shifting systems from BOSCH.
Automatic shifting
Adaptive suspension interacting with the terrain
ABS, wenn es nötig wird
Warnings if your tire pressure is too low
Motor power output optimized for the terrain (AI integration of e-bike motor with suspension data).
The possibilities will expand significantly.
Ride dynamics
Mountainbikes
The importance of this topic is gradually gaining recognition. Gone are the days when the focus was always on making things stiffer and lighter. We see a change in media opinions: A frame, which is getting deflected over roots during off-camber riding due to excessive stiffness, is getting noticed. And people point out that compliance, for better grip, is a positive behavior. However, from how much is too much or too little – there's still a lot of uncertainty from the manufacturer side, and it's often trial and error.
A bike is a complex system made up of the frame, fork, rims, spokes, hubs, as well as tire casing/air pressure/rubber compounds. The interdependencies of all these parameters ultimately define the character and handling of the bike on the trail.
If all the components aren’t working together as one, you can get a mix that isn't equally suitable for every rider.
Even at the World Cup level, there is a lot of experimented with balancing stiffness. However "the one" solution, which works for every riding situation or every trail – is not achievable (yet). However, what is tested and refined at the World Cup level will eventually become relevant for the average rider. Suspensions and geometries are stagnating in their development and performance. Everything works at a solid level. Instead of aiming for even softer suspension, we could all benefit from improved dynamics in the frame, wheels, and suspension forks. Does this sound far-fetched or too theoretical? If you think so, we recommend taking a look at winter sports, and particularly, what has become possible in skiing. Shaping (carving) allows everyone to learn the sport faster, and it enables safer, more efficient turns with less effort.
E-Bikes
Objectively speaking, e-bikes are still in their infancy when it comes to ride dynamics. Or put differently, the potential for optimization is still significantly higher than with regular mountain bikes.
The Lapierre Overvolt GLP III, mentioned under the battery section, or the Bulls Vuca EVO AM with the E1.12 MGU, are likely to be pioneers in this area. With the Bulls, the gears are integrated directly into a gearbox attached to the motor. It's challenging to get any more centralized in terms of weight distribution.
Tires
Maxxis' long-standing dominance in the scene-performance segment has been challenged by Continental. Schwalbe is catching up with new casing-designs and has managed to onboard a new followership in MTB-people. What will Maxxis do as a follow-up? They will not sit idle. It's likely that a new tire generation or technology will hit the market this year. Since the profiles have proven successful, this will most likely happen in the casing as well.
Bonus – Little Helpers
There is still innovation coming from directions you wouldn't expect. Jo Klieber, e*thirteen, Pademelon, and Rimpact, to name just a few.
KIS
Jo refers to the KIS as a solution to a problem he didn't even know he had. Sounds complicated? Actually, it’s not. As humans, we're capable of adapting to inconsistent feedback from sports equipment or machines. For decades, we've simply accepted the tendency for bicycles to have steering that dips or feels unstable, and no one would call it a problem. But if you take a look around and compare bikes to other vehicles we steer, you'll notice that none of them lack self-centering steering. If we let go of the steering wheel or control stick, it returns to the center.
KIS helps with this, and you could describe it as a "linearization of steering forces." It connects the previously free-rotating front end to the rear of the bike. We’ll report on this in more detail soon. Overall, the benefits on the trail outweigh the drawbacks, and every bike should come with a KIS installed.
As a prototype, the KIS was mounted directly on the top tube. It’s likely that, in a different form, it will be offered as an aftermarket option. Canyon is taking a pioneering role by seamlessly integrating KIS into the top tube.
e*thirteen Sidekick
We’ve already tested the system (Read the review). Reducing pedal kickback is an advantage on the trail. Depending on the rear suspension design, Sidekick can offer a huge benefit in rough terrain. In a thought experiment, considering AntiSquat and the ability of the Sidekick hub to reduce it, one could philosophize about differently designed rear suspensions. Whether manufacturers will decide to adopt this remains to be seen.
Pademelon
A steering damper is not the same as a KIS, and we don't want to compare them here. What’s interesting, though, is the increasingly frequent testing with mass dampers seen at the World Cup. Filtering out vibrations has been a recurring topic. Whether it's Spank with Vibrocore in the handlebars and rims, or simple things like the rubber of the grips. As humans on bikes, we’re exposed to vibrations, and they cause fatigue. It's similar to how your hand starts to hurt after sanding a door for two hours.
With the CS.1, Pademelon aims not so much to filter out vibrations, but to help improve control and make the ride smoother. It won’t be the only product in this broad field.
Rimpact
"A body remains at rest or in uniform straight-line motion unless acted upon by a net external force." – Newton's First Law. When mass (weights) is placed on a bike, it’s possible to take advantage of this principle. Rimpact has a product in the works, the TMD (Tuned Mass Damper), which is designed to help prevent fatigue. We're curious and will be following this topic closely this year.
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Author – Jens Staudt
Height: 191 cm
Weight: 87 kg
Riding style: With his racing background, the lines are planned, even if there is anything bigger in his way. If possible, sections will be jumped over. You should use the entire width of a trail. Others would say - uncompromising.
Motivation: A product should function carefree and for as long as possible. If you have to screw less, you can ride more. He likes to tinker and see how the bike can be optimized.